I've got a little marketing quiz for you today, with perhaps a surprising conclusion.

As you might know, I often split test the subject lines I use in emails to see which get the best open rates (and yes, it's better to test which get the most sales but the numbers are rarely big enough to get a statistically significant result, so open rates is what I work with).

Listed below are some subject lines I've tested in recent emails – see if you can guess which ones got the highest open rates:

1. The tools I use to run my online business vs The question I get emailed about the most
2. The case against thought leadership vs [Podcast] Brent Adamson on how to win business through commercial insight
3. If you're considering creating a premium or “high ticket service” vs Behind the scenes creating a “high ticket program”
4. If you're a serious Linkedin user, you MUST listen to this vs The big upcoming changes in Linkedin (podcast with Mark Williams)
5. “But how do I get them in the first place?” vs How to “kick start” building your audience and clients
6. These three things are all you need vs You probably won't become a Youtube sensation, but you *can* learn from them
7. No personality? vs “But what if I don't have a big personality?”
8. How to avoid going broke with online advertising vs The secret of confident paid traffic
9. Is this holding you back? vs Activity vs Assets
10. The “secret” source of leads most people ignore vs “Re-activate” your old leads
11. Fish in the right ponds for clients vs “Where should I look for new clients?”
12. 3 things you MUST do to attract the right leads vs Most people get this completely wrong
13. Mindset flip = more leads vs Do you fall into this common lead generation trap?
14. Tough clients, try this? vs Which world do you live in?
15. Beat the 57% rule vs Does your content fail this test?

Scroll down for the answers…
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drum roll
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The winner in each case is the first subject line listed – except for numbers 6, 8 and 14.

The reason for the order of the subject lines is that the first one in each pair is the one I thought would win. So I got 12 out of 15 right.

If you look back at some of the tips I've given over the years about email subject lines in these emails, on my blog, or in my book Email Persuasion you'll have a good idea of why I picked the subject lines I did.

And given how many emails I've written and sent over the years and how much I've studied the topic you'd expect me to be pretty good at picking the winner.

Yet still, I got 3 out 0f 15 wrong. That's 20%.

That's a big chunk for a so-called expert.

And I think that's the big learning here. When it comes to something as complex as marketing, even experts will regularly get it wrong.

The answer is not to ignore the experts, of course. They do much better than random.

But test their recommendations to see if they really are correct. 

In the case of email subject lines, I simply tell my system to send one subject line to 10% of my subscribers and the other to another 10%. Then wait a couple of hours and send the winning subject line to the remaining 80%.

That way you don't have to be a genius to make sure the vast majority of your subscribers get your best subject line. You can let the data tell you.

Of course, other things aren't so easy to test. But the principle is an important one. Try to test your marketing whenever you can.